Website review: The Oil Drum | The Freezing Point o...
laodan discovered this in Economics
•1 reviews since Nov 14, 2007
economics
•theoildrum.com/node/3228
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laodan discovered 6 months ago- The Freezing Point of Industrial Society in The Oil Drum (TED), by Kyle Schuant
... as fossil fuels deplete, it'll be harder for countries to resist change as they did in previous oil shocks simply because previous oil shocks they knew to be temporary. Nonetheless, we can expect that countries will as I said try various combinations of military might, diplomacy and trade deals to put off decisions and change. Thus, even with oil hitting $240/bbl and moving towards $1,500/bbl, we can expect that positive change towards an ecotechnic society will be slow. wasteful industrial societies will come under great strain, and move on to at least an attempt at an ecotechnic economy, or else collapse to a mixed-industrial economy. If affordability stays at that low level for several years, or continues to decline, we can expect them to turn into manual economies. The Freezing Point of Industrial Society An excellent post. This is the first time I see someone proposing a typology, of industrial development, based on the availability of energy and food. He distinguishes 4 types of levels of development: 1. Manual Economy. Fuel < 1,500lt, or food < 270 years' grain: Laos, North Korea, Honduras,... 2. Mixed-Industrial Economy: Fuel 1,500-10,000lt, food 270-28,500 years' grain: Ukraine, India,... 3. Wasteful Industrial Economy. Fuel > 10,000lt, food > 28,500 years' grain: US, Belgium, Japan, ... 4. The Ecotechnic Economy. Fuel < 1,500lt, food > 270 years' grain: No such economies yet exist. Development of the Four Economies As a good complement to this article check: Waiting for the Other Shoe by John Michael Greer. World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline an earlier post on these pages.
- The Freezing Point of Industrial Society in The Oil Drum (TED), by Kyle Schuant
