thegipples/credit crisis

From the page: "the present economic disaster cannot be solved through monetary means at this point, since we are now face to face with the result of decades of financial leveraging on top of a stagnating economy. There is therefore no way of avoiding the weaknesses that have built up in the real economy."

From the page: "First of all, you have this book to sell. [He picks up a leather-bound book.] This is worth something, because of all the labor and so on you put in it. But then someone says, "I don't have to sell the book itself! I have a mirror, and I can sell the mirror image of the book!"� Okay. That's a stock certificate. And then someone else says, "I have another mirror--I can sell a mirror image of that mirror."� Derivatives. That's fine too, for a while. Then you have 10,000 mirrors, and the image is almost perfect. People start to believe that these mirrors are almost the real thing. But at some point, the image is interrupted. And all the rest will go.

When I told the State Council about the mirrors, they all started laughing. "How can you sell a mirror image! Won't there be distortion?" But this is what happened with the American economy, and it will be a long and painful process to come down."

From the page: "Without a sufficiently large stimulus (in excess of 2 percent of GDP), we will have a vicious negative spiral: a weak economy will mean more bankruptcies, which will push stock prices down and interest rates up, undermine consumer confidence, and weaken banks. Consumption and investment will be cut back further.

Many Wall Street financiers, having received their gobs of cash, are returning to their fiscal religion of low deficits. It is remarkable how, having proven their incompetence, they are still revered in some quarters. What matters more than deficits is what we do with money; borrowing to finance high-productivity investments in education, technology, or infrastructure strengthens a nation's balance sheet."

However, Obama's "instincts" will probably lead him to Wall Street's guidance, since Wall Street put him in the White House.

From the page: "The shadow banking system or the shadow financial system consists of non-bank financial institutions that, like banks, borrow short, and in liquid forms, and lend or invest long in less liquid assets[1]. They are able to do this via the use of credit derivative instruments which allow them to evade normal banking regulations, e.g. those related to specifying ratios of capital reserves to debt."

From the page: "Lowering taxes on the poor and raising unemployment benefits while simultaneously increasing taxes on the rich can stimulate the economy, reduce the deficit, and reduce inequality. Cutting expenditures on the Iraq war and increasing expenditures on education can simultaneously increase output in the short and long run and reduce the deficit.

...America's financial system has changed dramatically since the 1930�s. Many of America's big banks moved out of the �oelending” business and into the �oemoving business.” They focused on buying assets, repackaging them, and selling them, while establishing a record of incompetence in assessing risk and screening for creditworthiness. Hundreds of billions have been spent to preserve these dysfunctional institutions. Nothing has been done even to address their perverse incentive structures, which encourage short-sighted behavior and excessive risk taking. With private rewards so markedly different from social returns, it is no surprise that the pursuit of self-interest (greed) led to such socially destructive consequences. Not even the interests of their own shareholders have been served well. "

From the page: ""We are not going to be a bunch of crazy, anti-business liberals," one executive said, summarizing Mr. Schumer's remarks. "We are going to be effective, moderate advocates for sound economic policies, good responsible stewards you can trust."

The message clearly resonated. The next week, executives at firms represented at the breakfast sent in more than $135,000 in campaign donations.

Senator Schumer plays an unrivaled role in Washington as beneficiary, advocate and overseer of an industry that is his hometown's most important business.

...Schumer led the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the last four years, raising a record $240 million while increasing donations from Wall Street by 50 percent. That money helped the Democrats gain power in Congress, elevated Mr. Schumer's standing in his party and increased the industry's clout in the capital."

From the page: "The basic question Keynes asked was: How do rational people behave under conditions of uncertainty? The answer he gave was profound and extends far beyond economics. People fall back on "conventions," which give them the assurance that they are doing the right thing. The chief of these are the assumptions that the future will be like the past (witness all the financial models that assumed housing prices wouldn't fall) and that current prices correctly sum up "future prospects." Above all, we run with the crowd. A master of aphorism, Keynes wrote that a "sound banker" is one who, "when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way.""