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  • Lessons From Japan in Stemming a Crisis - NYTimes.com

    Rated Feb 13 2009 2 reviews economics, japan, usa, money, finance nytimes.com

    The Obama administration is committing huge sums of money to rescuing banks, but the veterans of Japan's banking crisis have three words for the Americans: more money, faster.

    The Japanese have been here before. They endured a "lost decade" of economic stagnation in the 1990s as their banks labored under crippling debt, and successive governments wasted trillions of yen on half-measures.

    Only in 2003 did the government finally take the actions that helped lead to a recovery: forcing major banks to submit to merciless audits and declare bad debts; spending two trillion yen to effectively nationalize a major bank, wiping out its shareholders; and allowing weaker banks to fail.

    By then, Tokyo's main Nikkei stock index had lost almost three-quarters of its value. The country's public debt had grown to exceed its gross domestic product, and deflation stalked the land. In the end, real estate prices fell for 15 consecutive years.

    More alarming? Some students of the Japanese debacle say they see a similar train wreck heading for the United States.

    "I thought America had studied Japan's failures," said Hirofumi Gomi, a top official at Japan's Financial Services Agency during the crisis. "Why is it making the same mistakes?"

    Many American critics of the plan unveiled Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the plan lacked details. Experts on Japan found it timid -- especially given the size of the banking crisis the administration faces.

    "I think they know how big it is, but they don't want to say how big it is. It's so big they can't acknowledge it," said John H. Makin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, referring to administration officials. "The lesson from Japan in the 1990s was that they should have stepped up and nationalized the banks."
    Lessons From Japan in Stemming a Crisis - NYTimes.com
  • The New York Times > Education > Image >...

    Rated Dec 03 2008 1 review economics, education, usa, money, college nytimes.com



    "When the economy is good, and state universities are somewhat better funded, we raise tuition as little as possible," he said. "When the economy is bad, we raise tuition and sock it to families, when people can least afford it. That's exactly the opposite of what we need."
    The New York Times > Education > Image > Soaring College Tuitions
  • http://iht.com/articles/2008/10/29/business/29credit.php

    Rated Oct 28 2008 1 review economics, credit cards, money, consumer, credit iht.com

    Big lenders -- like American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup and even the retailer Target -- have begun tightening standards for applicants and are culling their portfolios of the riskiest customers. Capital One, a big issuer, for example, has aggressively shut down inactive accounts and reduced customer credit lines by 4.5 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, according to regulatory filings.

    Lenders are shunning consumers already in debt and cutting credit limits for existing cardholders, especially those who live in areas ravaged by the housing crisis or work in troubled industries. In some cases, certain lenders are even pulling in credit lines after monitoring cardholders who shop at the same stores as other risky borrowers or who have mortgages from certain banks.

    While such changes protect banks, some can come back to haunt consumers. The result can be a lower credit score, which forces a borrower to pay higher interest rates and makes it harder to obtain loans. A reduced line of credit can also make it harder for consumers to manage their budgets since lenders have 30 days to notify their customers, and often do so only after taking action.

    The depth of the financial crisis has shocked a credit-hooked nation into rethinking its habits. Many families once content to buy now and pay later are eager to trim their reliance on credit cards. The Treasury Department, which is spending billions in taxpayer money to clean up an economic mess triggered in part by all sorts of easy credit, recently started an advertising campaign inviting consumers to check into the "Bad Credit Hotel," an online game that teaches the basics of maintaining good credit.

    At the same time, the fear factor among lenders has deepened just as the crisis makes it harder for some financially stretched consumers to wean themselves from credit cards for even basic needs, like gas and food.
    http://iht.com/articles/2008/10/29/business/29credit.php
  • The Debt Trap - Banks Mine Data and Woo Troubled...

    Rated Oct 21 2008 1 review economics, debt, money, credit, finance nytimes.com

    Singling out even struggling American consumers like Ms. Jerez is one of the overlooked causes of the debt boom and the resulting crisis, which threatens to choke the global economy.

    Using techniques that grew more sophisticated over the last decade, businesses comb through an array of sources, including bank and court records, to create detailed profiles of the financial lives of more than 100 million Americans.

    They then sell that information as marketing leads to banks, credit card issuers and mortgage brokers, who fiercely compete to find untapped customers -- even those who would normally have trouble qualifying for the credit they were being pitched.

    These tailor-made offers land in mailboxes, or are sold over the phone by telemarketers, just ahead of the next big financial step in consumers' lives, creating the appearance of almost irresistible serendipity.

    These leads, which typically cost a few cents for each household profile, are often called "trigger lists" in the industry. One company, First American, sells a list of consumers to lenders called a "farming kit."

    This marketplace for personal data has been a crucial factor in powering the unrivaled lending machine in the United States. European countries, by contrast, have far stricter laws limiting the sale of personal information. Those countries also have far lower per-capita debt levels.
    The Debt Trap - Banks Mine Data and Woo Troubled Borrowers - NYTimes.com
  • Banks Are Likely to Hold Tight to Bailout Money -...

    Rated Oct 16 2008 1 review economics, banking, finance, usa, money nytimes.com

    As two financial giants, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, reported fresh multibillion-dollar losses on Thursday, the industry passed a grim milestone: All of the combined profits that major banks earned in recent years have vanished.

    Since mid-2007, when the credit crisis erupted, the country's nine largest banks have written down the value of their troubled assets by a combined $323 billion. With a recession looming, the pain is unlikely to end there. The problems that began with home mortgages, analysts say, are migrating to auto, credit card and commercial real estate loans.

    The deepening red ink underscores a crucial question about the government's plan: Will lenders deploy their new-found capital quickly, as the Treasury hopes, and unlock the flow of credit through the economy? Or will they hoard the money to protect themselves?

    John A. Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, said on Thursday that banks were unlikely to act swiftly. Executives at other banks privately expressed a similar view.

    "We will have the opportunity to redeploy that," Mr. Thain said of the new capital on a telephone call with analysts. "But at least for the next quarter, it's just going to be a cushion."

    Granted, the banks are in a deep hole. For every dollar the banks earned during the industry's most prosperous years, they have now wiped out $1.06.

    Even with the capital from the government, analysts say, the banking industry still needs to raise around $275 billion in light of the looming losses.

    But Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is urging them to use their new capital soon. On Monday, Mr. Paulson unveiled plans to provide $125 billion to nine banks on terms that were more favorable than they would have received in the marketplace. The government, however, has offered no written requirements about how or when the banks must use the money.
    Banks Are Likely to Hold Tight to Bailout Money - NYTimes.com
  • Drama Behind a $250 Billion Banking Deal - NYTimes.com

    Rated Oct 14 2008 1 review economics, banking, finance, usa, money nytimes.com

    The Treasury's plan would help the United States catch up to Europe in what has become a footrace between countries to reassure investors that their banks will not default or that other countries will not one-up their rescue plans and, in so doing, siphon off bank deposits or investment capital.

    "The Europeans not only provided a blueprint, but forced our hand," said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard and an adviser to John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate. "We're trying to prevent wholesale carnage in the financial system."

    In the process, Mr. Rogoff and other experts said, the government is remaking the financial landscape in ways that would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago -- taking stakes in the industry and making Washington the ultimate guarantor for banking in the United States.

    But the pace of the crisis has driven events, and fissures in places as far-flung as Iceland, which suffered a wholesale collapse of its banks, persuaded officials to act far more decisively than they had previously.

    "Over the weekend, I thought it could come out very badly," said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. "But we stepped back from the cliff."

    The guarantee on bank debt is similar to one announced by several European countries earlier on Monday, and is meant to unlock the lending market between banks. Banks have curtailed such lending -- considered crucial to the smooth running of the financial system and the broader economy -- because they fear they will not be repaid if a bank borrower runs into trouble.

    But officials said they hoped the guarantee on new senior debt would have an even broader effect than an interbank lending guarantee because it should also stimulate lending to businesses.

    Another part of the government's remedy is to extend the federal deposit insurance to cover all small-business deposits. Federal regulators recently have been noticing that small-business customers, which tend to carry balances over the federal insurance limits, had been withdrawing their money from weaker banks and moving it to bigger, more stable banks.

    Congress had already raised the F.D.I.C.'s deposit insurance limit to $250,000 earlier this month, extending coverage to roughly 68 percent of small-business deposits, according to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a financial services consulting firm. The new rules would cover the remaining 32 percent.

    "Imposing unlimited deposit insurance doesn't fix the underlying problem, but it does reduce the threat of overnight failures," said Jaret Seiberg, a financial services policy analyst at the Stanford Group in Washington.

    "If you reduce the threat of overnight failures," Mr. Seiberg said, "you start to encourage lending to each other overnight, which starts to restore the normal functioning of the credit markets."

    Recapitalizing banks is not without its risks, experts warned, pointing to the example of Britain, which announced its program last week and injected its first capital into three banks on Monday.

    Shares of the newly nationalized banks -- Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds -- slumped on Monday, despite a surge in banks elsewhere, because shareholder value was diluted by the government.

    The move, analysts said, makes the government Britain's biggest banker. And it creates a two-tier banking system in which the nationalized banks are run like utilities and others are free to pursue profit growth. As part of the plan, the chief executives of the three banks stepped down.

    Still, Mr. Paulson's strategy was backed by lawmakers, including Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, who said he preferred capital injections to buying distressed mortgage-related assets -- a proposal that Treasury pushed aggressively before its turnabout.
    Drama Behind a $250 Billion Banking Deal - NYTimes.com
  • White House Overhauling Rescue Plan - NYTimes.com

    Rated Oct 11 2008 1 review economics, banking, finance, usa, money nytimes.com

    Two weeks after persuading Congress to let it spend $700 billion to buy distressed securities tied to mortgages, the Bush administration has put that idea aside in favor of a new approach that would have the government inject capital directly into the nation's banks -- in effect, partially nationalizing the industry.

    As recently as Sept. 23, senior officials had publicly derided proposals by Democrats to have the government take ownership stakes in banks.

    The Treasury Department's surprising turnaround on the issue of buying stock in banks, which has now become its primary focus, has raised questions about whether the administration squandered valuable time in trying to sell Congress on a plan that officials had failed to think through in advance.

    It has also raised questions about whether the administration's deep philosophical aversion to government ownership in private companies hindered its ability to look at all options for stabilizing the markets.

    Some experts also contend that Treasury's decision last month to not use taxpayer money to save Lehman Brothers worsened the panic that quickly metastasized into an international crisis.

    The administration's new focus was announced late Friday as part of a rescue plan in coordination with six of the world's richest nations. It came during a week when the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 18 percent, one of the worst weeks in stock market history.
    White House Overhauling Rescue Plan - NYTimes.com
  • The Frugal Teenager, Ready or Not - NYTimes.com

    Rated Oct 11 2008 1 review economics, fashion, kids, parenting, money nytimes.com

    Indulged. Entitled. Those labels have become hot-glued to middle-class and affluent teenagers born after the last major economic downturn, in the late 1980s. They were raised in comparatively flush times by parents who believed that keeping children happy, stimulated and successful, no matter the cost, was an unassailable virtue. A 2007 study by the Harrison Group, a market research firm in Waterbury, Conn., found that nearly 75 percent of parents caved in to their children's nagging for new video games, half within two weeks.

    But as the economy totters, many families have no choice but to cut back, which may lead to a shift in their thinking about money and permissiveness. Last week a semiannual survey of 7,000 15- to 18-year-olds by Piper Jaffray, an investment bank and research firm, showed that annual discretionary spending by teenagers, whose money comes from allowance, gifts and part-time jobs, had dropped 27 percent to $2,600, from its spring 2006 peak of $3,560.

    "Parents are suddenly saying `no' and their kids are saying, `What do you mean?' " said Robert D. Manning, an economist at the Rochester Institute of Technology and author of "Credit Card Nation."
    The Frugal Teenager, Ready or Not - NYTimes.com
  • The Reckoning - Taking Hard New Look at a Greenspan...

    Rated Oct 09 2008 1 review economics, investing, usa, money, finance nytimes.com

    George Soros, the prominent financier, avoids using the financial contracts known as derivatives "because we don't really understand how they work." Felix G. Rohatyn, the investment banker who saved New York from financial catastrophe in the 1970s, described derivatives as potential "hydrogen bombs."

    And Warren E. Buffett presciently observed five years ago that derivatives were "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."

    One prominent financial figure, however, has long thought otherwise. And his views held the greatest sway in debates about the regulation and use of derivatives -- exotic contracts that promised to protect investors from losses, thereby stimulating riskier practices that led to the financial crisis. For more than a decade, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has fiercely objected whenever derivatives have come under scrutiny in Congress or on Wall Street. "What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn't be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so," Mr. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in 2003. "We think it would be a mistake" to more deeply regulate the contracts, he added.

    Today, with the world caught in an economic tempest that Mr. Greenspan recently described as "the type of wrenching financial crisis that comes along only once in a century," his faith in derivatives remains unshaken...

    "Clearly, derivatives are a centerpiece of the crisis, and he was the leading proponent of the deregulation of derivatives," said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and an expert on financial regulation.

    The derivatives market is $531 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002 and a relative pittance just two decades ago. Theoretically intended to limit risk and ward off financial problems, the contracts instead have stoked uncertainty and actually spread risk amid doubts about how companies value them.

    If Mr. Greenspan had acted differently during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman from 1987 to 2006, many economists say, the current crisis might have been averted or muted.

    Over the years, Mr. Greenspan helped enable an ambitious American experiment in letting market forces run free. Now, the nation is confronting the consequences.
    The Reckoning - Taking Hard New Look at a Greenspan Legacy - Series - NYTimes.com
  • Talking Business - A Day (Gasp) Like Any Other - NYTimes.com

    Rated Oct 06 2008 1 review business, economics, investing, usa, money nytimes.com

    "What I am worried about with all these bailouts," said the great Wall Street historian Ron Chernow, "is whether they are going to eventually tax the resources of the federal government. The numbers are already getting very, very large. What is especially scary and unsettling is that even actions of this magnitude have not seemed to restore confidence. Each time, you thought that would be the one to stop the contagion. It hasn't happened."
    Talking Business - A Day (Gasp) Like Any Other - NYTimes.com